Hot on the heels of the weekend news regarding “illegal” donations to the Labour Party, it now seems that there will be a formal investigation by the Police.  The whole saga revolves around the secret donations of Labour Party supporter David Abrahams and his alleged illegal use of representatives to mask the real name of the underlying donor.  Has this now got the whiff of the cash for peerages situation?

When you consider that the Labour Party are currently millions of pounds in debt, and they have now agreed to hand back upwards of £600,000 in donations, you will soon get a sense of how serious the situation is.  Even today we are seeing Gordon Brown’s colleagues trying to muddy the water yet further with suggestions that this goes back to the Tony Blair era – a blatant attempt to pass the buck yet again!

Despite the earlier resignation of Mr Watt, the Labour Party general secretary, the situation is set to flare up again with more news being fed to the media with regards to who knew about the money.  It seems as though a number of Ministers were approached about possible donations, but only Harriet Harman took Mr Abrahams up on this – although she claims she did not know that he was the real name behind the money.  When asked about the situation with regards to Ms Harman, Gordon Brown was said to be very dismissive and suggested reporters should ask her about the situation directly.

The government appears to be in a serious melt down situation with polls showing the Tories in excess of ten points ahead in the polls.  The prospect of a long drawn out Police investigation will also ensure that this affair goes on for months – something which looks set to drag Gordon Brown into the gutter.  Can he survive? How long before the knives are out? Is it a free for all, and every person look after themselves?

Interesting questions, but what is the truth?

Posted: November 28th, 2007 under Uncategorized.
Comments: none

As news that the much rumoured bail out of troubled financial group Northern Rock may be nearing the end game hits the streets, it seems that Alistair Darling may be moving ever closer to the end of the road.  The Northern Rock board have announced Richard Branson’s Virgin Group as the partner of choice to take the group forward and hopefully on to recovery.  So how will it work?

Virgin will take a major stake in the business in exchange for introducing a new and highly incentivised management team into the troubled Geordie giant.  As well as injecting further capital for a share stake, Virgin will also giving existing shareholders the chance to input further funds into the group via a deeply discounted rights issue at 25p per share, against a current price of around 100p.  But what about the massive debt liabilities?

The loan from the bank of England now exceeds £25 billion, and while Virgin have plans in place to repay £14 billion immediately, there is no firm plans with regards to the additional loan amount.  Will the tax payer foot the bill? Will Alistair Darling take the blame?

These are all questions which need to be answered as it looks ever more likely that the UK tax payer will lose out at some stage in what has been a messy and badly handled affair.  Governments were never meant to use public money in the free market, but this has happened and many are wondering if this increases the chances of it happening again in the future?

Posted: November 27th, 2007 under Uncategorized.
Comments: none

After taking his Scotland team to the brink of Euro 2008 there is up roar in Scotland after manager Alex McLeish announced that he is set to take the reigns at Premiership strugglers Birmingham City in a  move which may cost the midlands club up to £1 million in compensation.  So what happened and where does this leave Scottish football?

It seems that despite denials only last week that he was looking to leave the post for the Premiership, Alex McLeish has long harboured ambitions for arguably the best football league in the world.  It seems that while in South Africa for the World Cup draw Birmingham City had approached the SFA to ask for permission to speak to McLeish.  Initially this request was rejected and permission was not granted, however events seem to have taken a bizarre turn when McLeish left for “business” in London, only to fax over a one line letter of resignation a few hours later.

While there has been no official confirmation that McLeish is the new Birmingham City boss, the news is surely to follow.  McLeish left Scotland on a salary of about £350,000 a year with rumours that he has signed a £1 million a year rolling contract with the midland giants.  Can he succeed? Who will be the next Scotland boss?

These are questions on the lips of all football fans today as the Scottish game looks for its third national coach in less than 12 months – not exactly a sign of stability.  Then again the team have been doing very well, so who ever take on the role has a great starting position.

Posted: November 27th, 2007 under Uncategorized.
Comments: none

After entering government on a whiter than white ticket, Gordon Brown is under yet more pressure this morning with the shock resignation of Labour’s General Secretary Peter Watt.  His resignation revolves around £600,000 in party donations which came from property developer David Abrahams, under a host of different names – against funding regulations and laws.  Bizarrely the crime of donating to a political party via a third party (without disclosing this) carries the threat of an unlimited fine and potential jail term of up to 12 months.

The whole affair was blown open at the weekend after a Mail of Sunday reporter uncovered the situation, whereby over £200,000 of donations were made in the name of two of Mr Abrahams employees.  It now appears that the Labour Party knew where the money came from, but failed to disclose this in official paperwork.

After the cash for honours saga this is the last thing which the political scene needed and it has given the Tories more reason to attack Gordon Brown.  However, do not be surprised if the Tory onslaught is short lived because there is a chance that they may similar “skeletons” in the cupboard.  The whole subject of political donations is sure to come under the spot light again and there will no doubt be calls for tax payer funding of political parties – something which many tax payers are against, bearing in mind the disastrous financial track record of the political parties.

We will no doubt see Gordon Brown announce another white wash of an investigation by Labour Cronies, another promise to “come clean” and yet more promises for the future.  The truth is that the whole subject of political donations is a very murky subject, a world where everyone helps each other and legal lines often become blurred.

Posted: November 26th, 2007 under Uncategorized.
Comments: none

While a whole host of experts had predicted that the credit crunch would give the US (and worldwide economy) a short sharp shock, many are now coming around to the idea that the US is heading towards a full blown recession, and there is very little the authorities can do about it.  Like a large tanker, the economy is very difficult to steer and near impossible to turn around quickly.  So what exactly has gone wrong?

Even though the credit crunch brought home a number of home truths about the state of the US economy, personal debt and what was actually happening under the surface the extent of the problem has shocked many.  Personal debt in the US has never been higher, savings have never been lower (even though historically the US has always had high levels of personal savings) and the property market is starting to crumble.  The politicians are now running scared and trying to avert what could turn into a nightmare scenario, costing jobs, pushing people into bankruptcy and piling yet more debt on top of the US economy.

What are the prospects for the worldwide economy?

The problems in the US are set to spread around the world, with signs in the UK that the property market is already showing signs of weakness (although whether it will fall as far back as the US property market is debateable).  The US economy is the boiler room of the world and if the heat turns down then the big freeze will almost certainly spread to all areas of the developed world.

Even though we are seeing a worldwide reduction in interest rate it seems to be too little too late, and it is not just a case of financial issues, the confidence is draining out of the market.  Only when confidence returns to the markets will we stand a chance of any kind of recovery, until then the business pie will be getting smaller and smaller and the competition will be getting hard and harder.

Posted: November 26th, 2007 under Uncategorized.
Comments: none

After 11 years of power in Australia, the ruling Conservative party have been well and truly trounced in the latest national elections.  Prime Minister John Howard had for so many years seemed untouchable, often put forward as the future face of Australian politics.  In an amazing turn around he actually looks like losing his Bennelong seat to Liberal new comer Maxine McKew who once worked as a typist with the BBC in London!

While McKew may have grabbed a large chunk of the headlines it is the Labour Party under Kevin Rudd who have powered to victory in the national polls.  Their first move when they take power will be to ask the Australian population whether they want to retain the Queen as their head of state, or introduce a new Presidential role.  This is a subject which has been at the centre of Australian politics for some time and many are not sure which way the proposed poll will go.

So why was Howard trounced in the polls?

After 11 years in power it seems as though the electorate has decided the time is right for change.  Howard took a fair amount of flack over the Iraq conflict with a number of leading politicians deeply against the war – and this seems to have been one of the major factors in the change in power.  There were also many who felt that Australia was not developing onto the international arena at an acceptable pace, and Howard’s refusal to sign the Kyoto Protocol did not receive countrywide acclaim. 

There looks set to be major changes in Australian politics over the coming months and years, and even a possible change in the head of state – all go down under then!

Posted: November 25th, 2007 under Uncategorized.
Comments: none

When tiny baby Olivia Templar was born, she was involved in a very stressful and traumatic labour which saw her brain starved of oxygen for 10 minutes.  This is the kind of starvation period which can see a new born receive massive brain damage, but thankfully not for Olivia!

Doctors used a pioneering treatment which saw a baby Olivia wear a helmet attached to a cooling machine for the first 3 days of her life.  This was an attempt to ensure that her brain was frozen while possible brain damage could have occurred – thereby reducing any chance of damage.  But how did it actually work?

It is not the lack of oxygen which directly causes brain damage, it is the swelling of the brain because of this situation which actually causes problems.  By fitting a cooling helmet at a very early stage, doctors were able to slow down the swelling process until such time as her oxygen in take and body was functioning normally.  As the brain was not allowed to swell, no damage occurred and baby Olivia was allowed to leave after a period of observation.

This new device has been introduced from the US, where it has already proved vital in assisting with brain damage cases, not only in children but in other accidents as well.  The process is the same for adult head injuries where again the worst of the damage will occur because of swelling of the brain.

Olivia is one kool kid, who will be looking forward to a great Christmas – one her parents may have thought she would never see…….

Posted: November 25th, 2007 under Uncategorized.
Comments: none

While we have already covered the problems with supplies of the Wii, it seems that as we approach the Christmas period, the situation is getting totally out of hand.  While the recommended retail price is in the region of £180, we are seeing retailers charging double that on sites such as Amazon and consumers paying in excess of £500 for a machine on eBay – absolutely crazy!

So what can be done? Can the authorities step in?

Unfortunately there is very little that can be done between now and the new year, with many retailer reporting that as soon as they receive any Wii’s in store they are being over run with demand.  Machines are literally leaving the store the same day they arrive, and the nerves of the consumer are getting more and more fraught. 

While there have been (and continue to be) cases of blatant exploitation, it all comes down to supply and demand.  The demand for the Wii has picked up a lot more than Nintendo had forecast over the last few months and there is actually a worldwide shortage of the machines.  Even a massive increase in production today would not have a major impact around the world until the New Year.

Unfortunately for some this has also attracted the attention of the fraudsters, the ones who “sell” their Wii’s on eBay, receive payment and then disappear without sending the goods.  Reports of this type of activity have started to pick up over the last few weeks as people continue their desperate search for the best selling Games Console of 2007. 

Whether the Wii will be the best selling console of 2008 remains to be seen, although the end to 2007 has been something of a shambles along the supply line.

Posted: November 24th, 2007 under Uncategorized.
Comments: none

Over the last few days Gordon Brown has walked into something of an ambush which was organised by a number of ex-high profile members of the British Army.  While he was away on diplomatic duties overseas, and not able to react to the taunts immediately, it seems that the UK voters have suddenly turned against Gordon Brown again. But are the voters right?

The problem with the UK armed forces over the last few years has been the decommissioning of a number of older aircraft, submarines and the like, which have all needed to be replaced.  As is common in this sector, there have been time over runs, cost over runs and now the army feel as if they are being over run!

When you also consider that UK forces are involved in what look like being long term projects in Afghanistan and Iraq, it seems as though on the surface the UK military budget is being stretched.  Calls for an additional £1 billion immediately have been flatly rejected, with Gordon Brown repeating his pledge that there will be an extra £7.7 billion available between now and 2011 – indeed there have also been calls for more than £1 billion in extra funding!

Each day we seem to be hearing about soldiers returning from battle to down trodden and out of date housing, while the authorities seem to be able to find funds for the continued influx of often illegal immigrants.  Unfortunately it is only a matter of time before the likes of the National Front attempt to use this situation to promote their own agenda – with many forecasting an increase in support for Far Right parties such as the National Front.

UK military spending is currently rising at around 2.3% a year, which has for some time been below the rate of inflation – hence accusations that the military budget is actually falling in real terms.  It will again be interesting to see how the government react to this mounting criticism, although if rumours are true that Gordon Brown will not be calling an election until 2010, he may have some time yet to ride the storm.

Posted: November 24th, 2007 under Uncategorized.
Comments: none

The UK mortgage market is showing signs of a major slowdown with 19% fewer mortgages approved compared to September and more worryingly 37% fewer compared to the same period in 2006.  While some of this fall may be due to a tightening of belts by the banks, after the credit crunch, there is a concern that the market is set for a real period of pressure.  Debts are rising, credit is now harder to obtain and more and more people are going to find it near impossible to transfer or re-finance some of their debt.  Finally it seems that the message may be getting through…….

The UK market has actually been more resilient that many had thought, but once it turns we may see many home owners looking to cash in their chips and take some profit, but will they leave it too late?

There is real concern that people may be forced to take lower and lower prices, with the insurance that they have large paper profits.  However, this could turn into a vicious circle with the next seller willing to take a little less and the next a little less, etc, etc.  A great number of home owners are actually banking on realising their paper gains to offset their personal rising debt, a situation which has the making of a possible nightmare scenario. 

While UK interest rates are set to fall over the next 12 months, there is also the real concern that more and more people will see their jobs at risk, reducing their ability to repay and refinance their debts.  Bankruptcies are set to rise (something we are already seeing signs of in the market place) and we are entering a fairly delicate stage of the economic cycle.  The Bank of England will have a larger and larger part to play over the coming months, and while they have shown great skill in the past, they will have their work cut out over the next 12 months or so.

Posted: November 23rd, 2007 under Uncategorized.
Comments: none